Yunel Escobar
Kenny Doyle has an extensive write-up at Dugout Central in which he challenges the thinking at Baseball Prospectus that Yunel Escobar will probably be nothing more than a utility player by year’s end.
While it’s highly unlikely that Escobar can sustain his excellence from last year (.326/.385/.451), I think it’s also unlikely that we see a drop-off that will find him on the bench by August. According to Baseball Prospectus 2008:
Now that Edgar Renteria is gone, the shortstop job belongs to Escobar, but it’s not clear that he’s good enough to hold it…..
Brent Lillibridge could pass him by August
That’s not necessarily a forecast I can dismiss but just watching Escobar play last year, he was pretty adept at moving runners. In 111 AB with runners on, he swatted 10 doubles, a homer and 11 walks for a .397 OBP. There’s no doubt his aggressive nature at the plate and the effect of pitchers having never faced him before contributed to many of his more remarkable stats last year. And while he had good range in the field, he also had a tendency to rush throws and try to make throws he should have just held onto. All indications from Braves camp are that Yunel is willing to adjust, learn and do what it’s going to take to remain a viable player. Whether he has the ability to translate that into success is the million dollar question.
Doyle sums up:
If he remains aggressive as a hitter, you should expect more of 2007. Pitchers will most likely make an adjustment and start trying to prey on his aggression, just as they’ve done with Jeff Francoeur and Andruw Jones. But that adjustment will most likely be counteracted if Escobar hits second in front of Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira. Pitchers will be afraid to risk wasting too much time messing with Escobar and possibly walking an aggressive hitter when they have Chipper and Tex coming up next.
And I think that will help him more than anything this year. KJ will be getting on base in front of him and Chipper will be batting behind him, two of the more patient hitters on the team. While that may have an effect on how is he viewed statistically, there couldn’t be a better spot in this lineup for him than the 2-hole. Yunel will be given every chance to play and succeed but knowing that highly touted ‘Lil Bridge is waiting in the wings should keep him motivated as well.
Personally, I’m no prognosticator nor can I crunch the numbers to prove much, but I think we’re going to see yet another solid season from Escobar. His defense is good enough so if he can keep getting on base and moving runners over (which is all the offense really needs from him), I don’t see him landing on the bench by year’s end.
